目　錄
**章　復雜性與臨界性...............................................................................1
簡單的物理定律與復雜的大自然 ..........................................................3
講故事與科學 ..........................................................................................8
復雜性理論能解釋什么？ ....................................................................10
災變遵循一種簡單的模式 ....................................................................14
分形幾何 ................................................................................................21
f /1噪聲：時間中的分形 .......................................................................24
齊普夫定律 ............................................................................................27
冪律與臨界現象 ....................................................................................29
處于平衡態的系統不是復雜的 ............................................................30
混沌不具有復雜性 ................................................................................33
自組織臨界性 ........................................................................................35
第二章　自組織臨界性的發現.....................................................................37
在布魯克海文 ........................................................................................37
f/1噪聲從何而來？ ...............................................................................41
蘇珊·科珀史密斯的狗模型 .................................................................42
耦合扭擺 ................................................................................................45
簡單模型的哲學：“球形奶牛” .............................................................46
擺系統變成臨界的 ................................................................................51
第三章　沙堆模型.........................................................................................56
沙堆模型 ................................................................................................59
假如生活在沙堆世界 ............................................................................67
我們能用筆和紙計算出冪律嗎？ ........................................................72
第四章　實際沙堆與地貌的形成.................................................................75
真實的沙堆實驗 ....................................................................................76
挪威的米堆實驗 ....................................................................................80
維則克的山體滑坡實驗：分形現象出現 ............................................86
喜馬拉雅“沙堆” ..................................................................................88
巖渣的沉積 ............................................................................................89
地貌學：偏離平衡的地表 ....................................................................92
第五章　地震、星震及太陽耀斑.................................................................97
地震的自組織 ......................................................................................101
一處印刷錯誤導致了重要進展 ..........................................................107
斯特龍博利附近的隆隆聲 .................................................................. 111
地殼是臨界的 ...................................................................................... 113
脈沖星頻率突增與星震 ...................................................................... 114
黑洞與太陽耀斑 .................................................................................. 116
第六章　“生命的游戲”：復雜性就是臨界性 ..........................................120
第七章　生命是自組織臨界現象嗎？.......................................................129
圣菲研究所 ..........................................................................................130
沙堆與間斷平衡 ..................................................................................134
相互制約調節的適應性圖像 ..............................................................135
第八章　簡單演化模型中的大滅絕與間斷平衡.......................................147
我們能對達爾文建模嗎？ ..................................................................150
周日下午的一個科學課題 ..................................................................153
低溫產生復雜生命 ..............................................................................164
與真實數據比較 ..................................................................................165
恐龍滅絕和隕石 ..................................................................................172
丹蒂· 查爾沃的演化游戲 ...................................................................174
自組織臨界性與蓋亞假說 ..................................................................175
重新來一次演化 ..................................................................................177
第九章　間斷平衡模型理論.......................................................................182
什么才算理論？ ..................................................................................182
演化模型的隨機近鄰形式 ..................................................................184
自組織過程 ..........................................................................................188
臨界態 ..................................................................................................191
重訪生命游戲 ......................................................................................192
重訪地震 ..............................................................................................193
第十章　大腦與自組織臨界性...................................................................197
為什么大腦應當是臨界的？ ..............................................................198
猴子問題 ..............................................................................................200
大腦與河網 ..........................................................................................203
第十一章　經濟和交通阻塞.......................................................................206
均衡經濟像水 ......................................................................................206
實際經濟像沙 ......................................................................................209
臨界經濟的一個簡單模型 .................................................................. 211
波動和災難不可避免 ..........................................................................215
交通阻塞 ..............................................................................................216
參考文獻.......................................................................................................223
人名英漢對照表...........................................................................................230
附錄　湯超致譯者信...................................................................................238
譯后記...........................................................................................................240